Paramore Simple. Clear. Focused on Results.

Search usage will expand beyond all-purpose, one-stop search engines (i.e. Google, Bing) to special-purpose or vertical search engines (i.e. iTunes Store, Twitter, Facebook, DuckDuckGo, Blekko, Wolfram|Alpha, etc.). Two reasons:

As we kick off a new year, I want to do a little prognosticating on some things I expect to happen in 2011. As I wrote this post, the general theme that emerged is that the web will be moving beyond the general search + ad-based revenue model. That model won’t be going anywhere anytime soon and is a workable fit for some; however, I’m seeing some shifts that will open up opportunities for innovation and disruption.

1. Search Beyond Google

A growing but vocal group of people are noticing a degradation in Google search results quality. Much of search degradation can be traced to companies that are either scraping long-tail content from sources such as Wikipedia and StackOverflow, or to those that are generating massive amounts of content from vast content farms. Both are exploiting search algorithms on a large scale with content that looks valuable to Google but is of little value to actual people. Demand Media and Associated Content are the two of the biggest sources for long-tail, highly-optimized content operations. Maybe this effect can be diminshed on the web as companies shift to business models not wholly reliant on ad-based revenue, which requires a steady stream of search traffic to make money.

Search is contextual. For example, iTunes Store is where people go to not only search for digital content, but also to buy and consume that content. General web search doesn’t serve this use case well as it only fulfills the search function and not the buy and consume functions. Amazon is similar to iTunes Store, but it covers much more than just digital content, such as listing and selling goods from other retailers. I could keep going: Craigslist for local listings, Wolfram|Alpha for structured data and computational searches, Twitter/Facebook for social info, etc.

Further reading:

• http://techcrunch.com/2010/11/03/blekko/
• http://www.codinghorror.com/blog/2011/01/trouble-in-the-house-of-google.html
• http://www.marco.org/2617546197
• http://techcrunch.com/2011/01/08/google-mojo/

2. More Pay-to-Use Websites

Consumer-focused websites and web services will actually start charging for their service instead of relying on ad-supported revenue. Apple helped familiarize the masses with buying digital goods, first with music then with iOS apps. The belief that everything on the web is free will somewhat diminish, and I could see more companies directly monetizing their product/service as people get more used to paying for digital goods. (Side note: I want to see some companies that make direct monetization easier on the web (like Apple did with iTunes Store) for both businesses and customers.

37signals, a big proponent of people paying for their products, must be feeling slightly vindicated. How many of you would pay to use Twitter / Facebook / LinkedIn / Google in exchange for a better overall experience, additional privacy protections, new features, etc.? I, for one, would in a heartbeat — for a reasonable price of course.

Further reading:

• http://techcrunch.com/2010/09/21/letter-ly-morin/
• http://techcrunch.com/2010/12/29/delicious-exodus-pinboard/

3. Social Will Be Everywhere

Can we all drop the word ‘social’ and just call it the web? Facebook will continue its run for social web dominance by gaining it’s 1 billionth user sooner than we all think, perhaps even before the year’s end. Facebook’s growth and popularity will give rise to more companies who embrace social from the ground up. They’ll design products and services around social. Expect to see a slew of companies based around this equation:

anything + social = better than the competition

games + social = Zynga
coupons + social = Groupon
causes + social = Kickstarter

Further reading:

• http://mashable.com/2010/11/16/facebook-social/
• http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/18/business/18sbiz.html

What do you think? Disagree? Let me have it in the comments.

3 comments

Ben First, have to say I love the image!I wonder if the rise of quora.com and akin sites are supporting indicators of the need to find better answers.I slightly disagree with your second item. But it might my visceral reaction to the thought of being charged to use services that are free to me today, and because of the extent of the time I've been using them they seem to me a right. If many others share my sentiment I hope it might be enough consumer demand to secure the damn (oops, I mean dam) against pay-to-use pressure.Insightful post Mark, thanks for writing. Thu, Jan 13, 2011 12:07pm

Jesse Bunch Mark,Great post, man. I was just reading an article post by the guys over at StackOverflow about their issues with Google and it's search results, so I think you're right on the money there.As for the social thing? I think you're right about Facebook, provided too many more privacy issues don't arise. Issues like that, increased spam, or obtrusive advertising (which Zuckerberg won't allow, thankfully) will be poison to Facebook's user base IMO. Sat, Jan 15, 2011 11:28am

kidd redd Great stuff. The idea of payment to use sites, or access premium content is an interesting discussion. My thought is that at the end of the day, we pay for GOOD content one way or another. TANSTAAFL.Good point on use of the word "social." I think that within the business, we can drop the word, but many clients are still wrapping their heads around the idea and need the label. The web's always been social; that's what it was invented for.Totally agree that search is broken.I didn't do any predictions this time. If pressed, I'd say that the explosion of smartphone usage is still the biggest thing happening online. Already, I hate that apps on my computer don't work like they do on my iphone and ipad. Smartphones still aren't even half of the total users, yet. When they get up to 70-80% penetration, the demand for immediate anywhere, anytime connectivity will foster as big a revolution as the web itself was. Location, social hyperconnectivity, ecommerce, entertainment: for all the talk about the Cloud, it's still in the fifth grade. I think it's about to grow up really fast.I have believed for some time we are living in the greatest revolution in history, greater than Gutenberg, interchangeable parts, or electricity.Unrelated (sort-of) to the web: new technology to power autos will come within ten years. Oil is so nasty, and coal is, too. I think younger folks are about over it.Healthcare will be the second biggest industry on the planet (information being first). A whole lot of people are about to be old farts, and spoiled, whiny, sick ones at that. Diabetes will be so rampant that people your age will want to round up all the fat people who've been gorging on fries the last 5 decades and shoot them into outer space. We're really going to clog shit up for a while. Mon, Jan 17, 2011 10:03am